As cyclone season approaches, the good news for Vanuatu is that according to sea surface temperature models, there is a high possibility of the first cyclone forming east of the country.
The not so good news is that the chances are likely that once sea surface temperatures begin to warm up around Vanuatu, the country can expect a cyclone.
According to an analysis provided by Climate Specialist, Robson S Tigona, this means in November and December there is a higher risk for a cyclone to form and affect countries such as Tuvalu, Fiji, Samoa, Cook Islands, Niue, than Vanuatu.
Cyclone season begins in November and ends in April.
Mr Tigona says the risk period for cyclone to affect Vanuatu will be January, February and March 2020.
But Tigona says the country’s peak hot temperatures will be in January February and March, which is when a cyclone is likely to affect Vanuatu.
Like the cyclone season, Vanuatu’s hot and rain season is from November to April.
The Climate Specialist said the chances are much higher for a category 5 cyclone to hit east of Fiji but the risk for Vanuatu is normal, which is less likely.
Sea Surface Temperature data produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology shows that the sea surface temperature is currently much warmer from Fiji and eastward, that is around the International Date Line and eastward.
Currently the sea surface temperature around Vanuatu waters is much cooler.
Mr Tigona said the first cyclone that will form in this season will be named Rita, according to the current list of names that cyclone names are taken from.
But whatever weather the cyclone season brings, authorities always advise for everyone to be prepared at all times.