A report on ‘Vanuatu Energy Demand Projections: Business As Usual Scenario’ was officially launched on the 20th of April, 2017 at Holiday Inn Resort by the Acting Director of Department of Energy, Mr. Christopher Simelum and the Global Green Growth Institute’s (GGGI) Representative for Fiji and Vanuatu, Ms Katerina Syngellakis.
This report was prepared with support from GGGI to give an analysis of energy demand in the key sectors of Vanuatu and fed into development of energy efficiency targets in the Updated Vanuatu National Energy Road Map (NERM).
The Business As Usual (BAU) report estimates energy consumption for key sectors in Vanuatu between 2015 and 2030 under a BAU scenario in order to establish a baseline and enable identification of the impacts of activities recommended in the NERM.
The Updated NERM, endorsed by the Council of Ministers in June 2016 is the overarching policy framework for developing Vanuatu’s energy sector. Recognizing the importance of energy efficiency initiatives and their centrality to meeting the Government of Vanuatu’s vision for the energy sector, energy efficiency is a key element of the NERM.
Additionally, there is an emphasis on the need to increase implementation of renewable energy technologies in the national energy mix. If the NERM goals for use of renewables are met, the higher usage of renewable energy in grid electricity generation and rural electrification through renewable energy projects will mean a reduction of imported fuel volume for electricity from 29% in 2010 to 6% in 2030.
The report collected up-to-date data on energy consumption by end-use, identified energy usage data gaps, analyzes baseline data, reviewed the status of on-going planned and/or financed energy projects, and analyzed the potential impacts of non-achievement of the NERM 2013–2020 targets on projected energy consumption. This report is based on relevant assumptions and develops models to estimate energy demand projections between 2015 and 2030 for the three main forms of energy (petroleum, biomass and electricity).
Overall, energy consumption in Vanuatu is expected to double in the 15 years projection timeframe. If Vanuatu does not achieve the targets for renewable electricity generation set in the NERM or the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, petroleum consumption projections will increase compared to the BAU scenario.
In summary, the annual petroleum consumption for electricity would increase by 24% between 2015 and 2030, instead of the 62% decrease currently projected under the BAU.
Acting Director Simelum, in his launching speech acknowledged GGGI’s ongoing support towards the Ministry of Climate Change, more specifically the Department of Energy, and hope that the partnership together with other development partners will contribute towards Vanuatu energy sector and achieving targets in the updated NERM.
In her response, Ms. Syngellakis acknowledged the Vanuatu Government support to GGGI’s work in Vanuatu and hopes that the report help all stakeholders with an interest in the energy sector and provide useful information for policy and project design.